950 
 WTPA42 PHFO 250910
 TCDCP2
  
 Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number  44
 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
 1100 PM HST Fri Aug 24 2018
  
 The thunderstorms associated with Tropical Storm Lane are now far
 removed from the exposed low-level circulation center (LLCC). Most
 of this deep convection is in outer rain bands across the eastern
 and central Hawaiian Islands. Needless to say, severe flooding is
 occurring due to this, especially over the Big Island where over 40
 inches of rain have fallen along parts of the windward sections.
 Lane continues to weaken, so taking a blend of the latest satellite
 intensity estimates, we have lowered the initial intensity to 55
 knots.
  
 The latest motion for this advisory is 335/3 knots. Lane is expected
 to continue weakening due to vertical wind shear of 25 to 30 knots.
 As a result, the exposed LLCC will likely track slowly
 north-northwestward tonight, followed by a turn toward the west on
 Saturday. The latest track forecast has been nudged slightly to the
 right through 36 hours, when it is expected to weaken to a remnant
 low. Assuming this low survives, it may eventually become an
 extratropical gale low in the vicinity of the Northwestern Hawaiian
 Islands by day 5.
  
 KEY MESSAGES:
  
 1.  Effects from tropical storms can and do extend well from the
 center. Rain bands around the northern and eastern periphery of Lane
 are still bringing persistent flooding rainfall across parts of the
 state. In addition, damaging winds and isolated tornados are also
 possible in these rain bands. Winds will be accelerated over higher
 terrain, through gaps, and where winds blow downslope. Winds will
 also be stronger at the upper floors of high rise buildings.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  25/0900Z 19.4N 158.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  25/1800Z 19.8N 159.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  26/0600Z 19.9N 160.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  26/1800Z 19.9N 161.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  27/0600Z 20.0N 163.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  28/0600Z 20.7N 166.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  29/0600Z 23.0N 168.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  30/0600Z 27.5N 170.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  
 $$
 Forecaster Houston