696 
 WTNT44 KNHC 082055
 TCDAT4
 
 HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  43
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
 500 PM EDT SAT OCT 08 2016
 
 Satellite images indicate that the cloud pattern associated with
 Hurricane Matthew is gradually losing tropical characteristics
 while it becomes embedded within a mid-latitude trough. The
 hurricane is accompanied by a very extensive area of intense
 rains mostly located north of the center. Recent data from an Air
 Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the winds are still 65
 kt, and these winds are limited to a small area over water east of
 the center. The low-level circulation is becoming separated from the
 mid-level circulation due to strong shear. Most of the global
 models, primarily the GFS and the UKMET, forecast that Matthew will
 become entangled with a cold front, and the NHC forecast calls for
 Matthew to weaken and become absorbed within this frontal system
 within the next couple of days.
 
 Fixes from a reconnaissance plane indicate that Matthew is moving
 toward the east-northeast or 060 degrees at 10 kt while hugging the
 coast of South Carolina.  During the next 12 hours or so, while the
 Matthew is hugging the US coast and taking on a more extratropical
 structure, the tropical-storm-force winds are expected to expand and
 strengthen in the western semicircle and continue to affect portions
 of the coast within the warning area.
 
 Since Matthew is already embedded in the mid-latitude westerly flow
 and the steering pattern is forecast to persist for the next day or
 two, the NHC forecast moves the cyclone eastward or east-
 southeastward until it becomes absorbed.
 
 
 KEY MESSAGES:
 
 1.  As Matthew's structure changes, the system's strongest winds
 will shift to the back side of the circulation. These winds will
 persist over land even after the center begins to move away from the
 coastline, and have also increased the threat of storm surge in
 portions of the North Carolina Outer Banks.  Please see the
 Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic for a depiction of the
 areas at risk.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  08/2100Z 33.8N  78.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
  12H  09/0600Z 34.5N  76.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
  24H  09/1800Z 34.5N  74.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  10/0600Z 34.0N  71.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  48H  10/1800Z 33.0N  70.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  11/1800Z...ABSORBED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila