800 
 WTPA42 PHFO 242351
 TCDCP2
  
 Hurricane Lane Special Discussion Number  42
 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
 200 PM HST Fri Aug 24 2018
 
 This special advisory reduces the current intensity of Lane to 75
 kt based on rapid weakening of the associated cloud and radar
 patterns observed over the past few hours, and adjusts the intensity
 and wind radii forecast to better agree with current trends. There
 are no other changes at this time. This special advisory takes the
 place of the 2 pm intermediate advisory.
  
  
 KEY MESSAGES:
  
 1. One should not interpret the forecast westward turn south of the
 islands as a lower threat to the islands. If Lane retains central
 core convection longer than anticipated, the westward turn would
 happen later, which could bring hurricane conditions to Maui County
 or Oahu. This solution is still plausible at this time. Regardless
 of whether Lane makes landfall, severe impacts are still possible
 and the effects can extend far to the north and east of the center
 of Lane.
  
 2. Lane will remain dangerously close to the central Hawaiian
 Islands as a hurricane today into tonight bringing damaging winds
 to some areas. Terrain effects can cause strong localized
 acceleration of the wind through gaps and where winds blow
 downslope. These acceleration areas will shift with time as Lane
 passes near or over the islands. Winds will also be stronger at the
 upper floors of high rise buildings.
  
 3. The slow movement of Lane greatly increases the threat for
 prolonged heavy rainfall. This is expected to lead to major flash
 flooding and landslides in some areas.
  
 4. High and potentially damaging surf can be expected along exposed
 south facing shorelines today through Saturday, which could cause 
 severe beach erosion in some areas.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  25/0000Z 19.6N 157.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
  12H  25/0600Z 19.7N 157.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
  24H  25/1800Z 20.2N 158.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  26/0600Z 20.2N 159.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
  48H  26/1800Z 20.1N 160.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  27/1800Z 20.4N 163.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  28/1800Z 22.4N 165.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 120H  29/1800Z 26.7N 168.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
  
 $$
 Forecaster Ballard