435 
 WTNT44 KNHC 081500
 TCDAT4
 
 HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  42
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
 1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 08 2016
 
 Aircraft reconnaissance and land-based radar data indicate that the
 center of circulation has crossed the coast of South Carolina near
 the Cape Romain National Wildlife Refuge.
 
 The cloud pattern associated with Matthew is beginning to acquire
 some extratropical characteristics. The wind field is expanding, and
 the area of heavy rains is now northwest of the center.  Data from
 NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance aircraft around 1200 UTC indicated
 that the surface winds have decreased to around 65 kt. (Very recent
 SFMR winds of 78 kt were taken over shallow water where the
 instrument is affected by shoaling and provides unreliable output).
 Most of the global models, primarily the GFS and the UKMET, forecast
 that Matthew will become entangled with a cold front, and the new
 NHC forecast calls for Matthew to become absorbed within this
 frontal system within the next couple of days.  During the next 12
 to 24 hours, while the Matthew is hugging the US coast and taking on
 a more extratropical structure, the tropical-storm-force winds are
 expected to expand and strengthen in the western semicircle and
 continue to affect portions of the coast within the warning area.
 
 Matthew is already embedded in the mid-latitude westerly flow and is
 moving toward the northeast or 050 degrees at 10 kt. The steering
 pattern is forecast to persist for the next day or two, and on this
 basis the NHC forecast moves the cyclone eastward until it becomes
 absorbed.  Previous NHC official forecasts followed the EMCWF in
 keeping the cyclone a distinct entity longer and looping it
 southward, but even if this the case the system will likely be only
 a broad area of low pressure.
 
 Due to the degradation of Matthew's radar signature, the hourly
 Tropical Cyclone Updates will not longer be issued.
 
 
 KEY MESSAGES:
 
 1.  As Matthew's structure changes, the system's strongest winds
 will shift to the back side of the circulation. These winds will
 persist over land even after the center begins to move away from the
 coastline, and has also increased the threat of storm surge in
 portions of the North Carolina Outer Banks.  Please see the
 Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic for a depiction of the
 areas at risk.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  08/1500Z 33.0N  79.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
  12H  09/0000Z 33.6N  78.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
  24H  09/1200Z 34.0N  75.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
  36H  10/0000Z 34.0N  73.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  48H  10/1200Z 33.0N  72.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila