990 
 WTNT43 KNHC 292031
 TCDAT3
 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  42
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2004
 
 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE DAY. LISA
 CONSISTS OF AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND A WELL
 DEFINED CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. INITIAL
 INTENSITY REMAINS AT 60 KNOTS. THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR LISA TO
 BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WHILE THE SHEAR
 IS LOW AND BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES COOLER WATER. 
 
 LISA IS MOVING 350 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE COULD TURN MORE
 TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AROUND AN UPPER-LOW LOCATED TO ITS SOUTHWEST
 DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...LISA SHOULD THEN REACH THE
 WESTERLIES AND WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD WITH
 INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT
 LISA SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW...THE
 REMNANTS OF JEANNE...BY 96 HOURS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
  
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      29/2100Z 30.9N  45.9W    60 KT
  12HR VT     30/0600Z 32.5N  46.3W    65 KT
  24HR VT     30/1800Z 34.0N  47.3W    65 KT
  36HR VT     01/0600Z 36.0N  47.5W    65 KT
  48HR VT     01/1800Z 38.0N  46.5W    60 KT
  72HR VT     02/1800Z 42.0N  40.0W    45 KT...BECOMING ABSORBED
  96HR VT     03/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW
   
 $$