756 
 WTNT41 KNHC 080235
 TCDAT1
 
 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  42
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
 1100 PM AST WED OCT 07 2015
 
 Satellite imagery indicates that the system no longer resembles a
 tropical cyclone, with a disorganized area of multi-layered
 cloudiness sheared off well to the northeast of the ill-defined
 low-level center.  However, model analyses and surface data
 indicate that the cyclone is not yet embedded within a frontal
 zone, and therefore is not extratropical at this time.  Nonetheless,
 since the system lacks sufficient organized deep convection to
 qualify as a tropical cyclone, Joaquin is being declared as a post-
 tropical cyclone, and advisories are being terminated.  Cyclone
 phase space analyses from Florida State University indicate that the
 system will become extratropical in about 12 hours, and this is
 also shown in the official forecast.  The current intensity is set
 at 55 kt in agreement with a recent scatterometer overpass.  Global
 models show a gradual spindown of the cyclone over the next several
 days, and so does the official forecast.
 
 Post-tropical Joaquin continues to move rapidly toward the east,
 or 080/30 kt, while embedded in strong mid-latitude westerlies.
 The steering current is forecast to gradually weaken as a mid-level
 trough deepens near the Greenwich meridian, and the cyclone should
 move at a progressively slower forward speed over the period.  In
 2-3 days, the system is forecast to turn southeastward ahead of
 the abovementioned trough.  There is fairly good agreement among
 the global models on this scenario.
 
 The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts are primarily based
 upon guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  08/0300Z 42.0N  37.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  12H  08/1200Z 42.5N  32.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  24H  09/0000Z 42.8N  26.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  36H  09/1200Z 42.5N  22.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  48H  10/0000Z 42.5N  19.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  11/0000Z 42.0N  14.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  12/0000Z 40.5N  11.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  13/0000Z 39.0N  10.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch