687 
 WTPA41 PHFO 302106
 TCDCP1
 
 HURRICANE KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER  41
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032015
 1100 AM HST SUN AUG 30 2015
  
 THE EYE OF KILO FILLED IN OVERNIGHT...THOUGH INFRARED IMAGES THIS
 MORNING INDICATED SOME WARMING. THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS ALSO
 BECOME A BIT RESTRICTED TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST DUE TO
 SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE UNANIMOUSLY AT
 115 KT...AND THE UW/CIMSS ADT ANALYSIS AT 1800 UTC INDICATED 110 KT.
 GIVEN THE PRESENTATION IN THE SATELLITE IMAGES...THIS ADVISORY WILL
 USE THE ADT VALUE OF 110 KT FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY. 
 
 KILO APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF MAKING ITS GRADUAL RIGHT TURN
 TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE INITIAL MOTION
 FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 310/07 KT. THE OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS
 UNCHANGED WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING KILO CONTINUING TOWARD THE
 WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...THEN TURNING TOWARD THE WEST AS A RIDGE
 BUILDS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AFTER 48 HOURS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN
 THE DYNAMICAL MODELS IS THE IMPACT OF THE REBUILDING RIDGE WHICH
 AFFECTS WHEN THE WESTWARD TURN TAKES PLACE. THUS...THE CURRENT
 FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE DYNAMICAL
 CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
 FORECAST AFTERWARD TO LINE UP CLOSER WITH THE GFEX CONSENSUS.
 
 THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
 ABOVE 29C. THE MAIN QUESTION IS THE IMPACT OF VERTICAL SHEAR...WHICH
 HAS COME IN MUCH STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED 24 HOURS AGO. THE GLOBAL
 MODELS SHOW DIFFERING AMOUNTS OF SHEAR THAT RESULTS IN A WIDE RANGE
 OF INTENSITY OUTCOMES. SHIPS...WHICH IS BASED ON THE GFS FOR ITS
 ENVIRONMENTAL FIELDS...IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH WEAKENING AND TAKES
 KILO DOWN TO A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS. MEANWHILE...GFDL
 AND GHMI SHOW FURTHER STRENGTHENING. THE CURRENT FORECAST TAKES THE
 MIDDLE ROAD AND FOLLOWS THE IVCN CONSENSUS...WHICH IS ALSO CLOSE TO
 THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
  
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  30/2100Z 19.4N 178.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
  12H  31/0600Z 20.5N 178.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
  24H  31/1800Z 22.0N 179.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
  36H  01/0600Z 23.4N 179.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
  48H  01/1800Z 24.3N 179.4E  100 KT 115 MPH
  72H  02/1800Z 24.6N 178.6E  105 KT 120 MPH
  96H  03/1800Z 24.5N 177.0E  110 KT 125 MPH
 120H  04/1800Z 24.5N 174.5E  110 KT 125 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KODAMA