784 
 WTNT43 KNHC 291436
 TCDAT3
 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  41
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2004
  
 SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT LISA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
 DURING THE MORNING AS INDICATED BY A DISTINCT CYCLONICALLY CURVED
 CONVECTIVE CLOUD BAND...AND BETTER DEFINED CIRRUS OUTFLOW PATTERN
 OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE APPEARANCE OF A DEVELOPING EYE
 TYPE FEATURE FURTHER SUGGESTS THAT LISA IS BECOMING STRONGER.
 HOWEVER...DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES AT 12Z FROM TAFB WHERE 3.5 AND
 3.0 FROM SAB. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION WILL KEEP THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY AT 60 KT. OBSERVATIONS OF 45 KNOTS FROM SHIP ZCGH LOCATED
 ABOUT 100 NM SW OF THE CENTER AND 30 KNOTS FROM SHIP FQFL ABOUT 220
 NM NE OF THE CENTER OF LISA WERE USED TO ADJUST THE 34-KNOT WIND
 RADII.
  
 INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/10. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE
 SOUTHWEST OF LISA WILL HELP REDUCE SHEAR IN 12 HOURS ALLOWING
 FOR LISA TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE
 UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO STEER LISA TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR A
 DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...LISA WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
 AND ACCELERATE THROUGH 72 HOURS BECOMING EXTRA-TROPICAL OVER COOLER
 WATERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS
 AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.
  
 FORECASTER AGUIRRE/AVILA
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      29/1500Z 29.7N  45.8W    60 KT
  12HR VT     30/0000Z 31.1N  46.2W    65 KT
  24HR VT     30/1200Z 33.0N  47.5W    65 KT
  36HR VT     01/0000Z 35.0N  48.0W    65 KT
  48HR VT     01/1200Z 36.5N  48.0W    60 KT
  72HR VT     02/1200Z 40.5N  44.0W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
  96HR VT     03/1200Z 44.0N  37.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 120HR VT     04/1200Z 45.0N  26.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  
  
 $$