737 
 WTPA42 PHFO 241518
 TCDCP2
  
 Hurricane Lane Discussion Number  40...Corrected
 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
 500 AM HST Fri Aug 24 2018
  
 Hurricane Lane continues to signs of slow weakening due to wind
 shear of 20 to 30 knots from the southwest according to the latest
 SHIPS and UW-CIMSS analyses. There is no eye evident in satellite
 imagery, which is likely a result of these hostile conditions. Radar
 reflectivity data from the WSR-88D radars at Molokai and Kohala show
 the center is becoming disrupted. The latest satellite intensity
 estimates from HFO, JTWC, TAFB and SAB were a unanimous T5.0/90
 knots, while the UW-CIMSS ADT was T5.4/100 knots. Based on a blend
 of these estimates, the current intensity has been lowered to 95
 knots.
  
 Lane began to turn northward Thursday evening, and the current
 motion is 360/4 knots. Lane continues to be steered toward the north
 along the western side of a mid-level ridge, which is located to the
 east of Hawaii. The consensus guidance continues to show a northward
 motion, or even a motion toward just east of due north, as the ridge
 builds south of Lane. The latest track has shifted to the right of
 the previous forecast through the next 36 hours. This more closely
 follows the latest consensus track guidance. Note that on this
 track, Hurricane Lane continues to approach the central Hawaiian
 Islands, so there is no reason to believe that anyone is safe in the
 warning area. Assuming Lane begins to weaken, and decouple before,
 or after, it hits the islands, the cyclone is forecast to come
 increasingly under the influence of the low-level easterlies and
 begin tracking westward. Again, the exact time when this will occur
 remains highly uncertain, and only a small delay in this decoupling
 could bring Lane farther north. This would produce considerably
 worse conditions over the islands. Even if Lane remains along the
 forecast track, significant impacts are expected in the Hawaiian
 Islands.
  
 Our intensity forecast shows some additional weakening, but
 continues to trend on the high side of most of the intensity
 guidance through 72 hours due to the resilience Lane has shown
 during the past few days. Note that the CIRA analysis of Ocean Heat
 Content along the latest forecast track continues to show very high
 values during the next 24 hours or so. This will likely help
 maintain the intensity longer than might be expected with such
 strong shear. By early next week, it is possible that Lane will not
 survive the shear, and may become a remnant low by day 5.
  
  
 KEY MESSAGES:
  
 1. It is vital that you do not focus on the exact forecast track or
 intensity of Lane, and remain prepared for adjustments to the
 forecast. Although the official forecast does not explicitly
 indicate Lane's center making landfall over any of the islands, this
 remains a very real possibility. Even if the center of Lane remains
 offshore, severe impacts could still be realized as they extend well
 away from the center.
  
 2. Lane will pass dangerously close to the central Hawaiian Islands
 as a hurricane later today or tonight, and is expected to bring
 damaging winds. Terrain effects can cause strong localized
 acceleration of the wind through gaps and where winds blow
 downslope. These acceleration areas will shift with time as Lane
 passes near or over the islands. Winds will also be stronger at the
 upper floors of high rise buildings.
  
 3. The slow movement of Lane also greatly increases the threat for
 prolonged heavy rainfall and extreme rainfall totals. This is
 expected to lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding
 and landslides over all Hawaiian Islands.
  
 4. Life-threatening and damaging surf can be expected along exposed
 shorelines with localized storm surge exacerbating the impacts of a
 prolonged period of damaging surf. The prolonged period of large
 surf will also likely produce severe beach erosion.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  24/1500Z 18.7N 158.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
  12H  25/0000Z 19.4N 157.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
  24H  25/1200Z 20.0N 158.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
  36H  26/0000Z 20.4N 159.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  26/1200Z 20.2N 160.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
  72H  27/1200Z 20.1N 163.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
  96H  28/1200Z 21.5N 166.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 120H  29/1200Z 25.5N 168.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  
 $$
 Forecaster Houston