497 
 WTPA41 PHFO 301439
 TCDCP1
 
 HURRICANE KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER  40
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032015
 500 AM HST SUN AUG 30 2015
  
 THE SATELLITE CLOUD PATTERN OF KILO HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 6
 HOURS. THE EYE HAS COOLED AND THE COLD CLOUD TOPS AROUND THE CENTER
 HAVE DECREASED IN AREA AND BECOME LESS SYMMETRIC. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
 INTENSITIES WERE 6.0/115KT FROM JTWC AND SAB AND 6.5/127KT FROM
 PHFO. I HAVE DECREASED THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 115 KT FOR THIS
 PACKAGE.
  
 KILO CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST...AND THE INITIAL
 MOTION IS 300/8 KT. THE MAIN DYNAMIC MODELS SHOW KILO MAINTAINING
 THE SAME FORWARD SPEED AND MAKING A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST
 AS IT MOVES TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BY 48
 HOURS...THE FORWARD MOTION WILL SLOW AS THE STEERING FLOW BECOMES
 WEAK. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OF THE CYCLONE
 BY 72 HOURS AND CAUSING IT TO TAKE A TURN TOWARD THE WEST.
  
 THE 1200 UTC UW/CIMSS ANALYSIS SHOWS FAIRLY MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
 SHEAR OF ABOUT 15 KT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SHEAR SEEMS TO BE
 ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH ALOFT ABOUT 575 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE
 HURRICANE THAT HAS BEEN DIGGING SOUTHEAST. THE INTENSITY MAY HAVE
 PEAKED FOR THE TIME BEING...BUT SHIPS SHOWS THAT VERTICAL WIND
 SHEAR WILL REMAIN MODEST AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
 PROJECTED TRACK ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR 29C. SLOW WEAKENING IS
 EXPECTED THROUGH 48 HOURS. KILO COULD SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AGAIN AFTER
 72 HOURS AS SHEAR RELAXES A BIT. 
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  30/1500Z 18.9N 177.5W  115 KT 135 MPH
  12H  31/0000Z 19.6N 178.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
  24H  31/1200Z 21.1N 179.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
  36H  01/0000Z 22.7N 179.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
  48H  01/1200Z 24.0N 179.5E  100 KT 115 MPH
  72H  02/1200Z 25.0N 178.5E  100 KT 115 MPH
  96H  03/1200Z 25.0N 177.0E  105 KT 120 MPH
 120H  04/1200Z 25.0N 175.0E  110 KT 125 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER DONALDSON