560 
 WTNT42 KNHC 040856
 TCDAT2
 TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  40
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
 500 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010
  
 BOTH DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT DURING THE
 PAST FEW HOURS EARL HAS DEVELOPED A RING OF SHALLOW TO MODERATE
 CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER...WHICH RESEMBLES AN EYEWALL. BASED ON
 THE LAST RECON DATA...LITTLE CHANGE NOTED IN THE OVERALL STRUCTURE
 OF THE CYCLONE...AND THE FASTER FORWARD SPEED...THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/26. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
 CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY REASONINGS.
 EARL IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER
 TROUGH THAT IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND INTO
 THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
 MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER MUCH COOLER
 WATER AND INTERACTS WITH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LANDMASSES.
 HOWEVER...EARL IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN A VERY LARGE AND STRONG
 EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFTER IT PASSES NORTH OF NOVA
 SCOTIA LATER TODAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE
 RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL
 CONSENSUS. THE EXTRATROPICAL PORTION OF THE TRACK IS BASED ON
 COORDINATION WITH THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
  
 EARL REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND WILL BRING HIGH WINDS
 AND RAINFALL TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING...AND TO THE
 CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      04/0900Z 41.7N  67.1W    60 KT
  12HR VT     04/1800Z 45.4N  63.3W    55 KT...INLAND
  24HR VT     05/0600Z 50.1N  58.8W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  36HR VT     05/1800Z 54.0N  55.0W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  48HR VT     06/0600Z 56.0N  53.5W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72HR VT     07/0600Z 56.5N  55.0W    35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96HR VT     08/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER STEWART