844 
 WTPA41 PHFO 300837
 TCDCP1
 
 HURRICANE KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER  39
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032015
 1100 PM HST SAT AUG 29 2015
  
 THE SATELLITE CLOUD PATTERN OF KILO HAS REMAINED VERY STRONG OVER
 THE PAST 6 HOURS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITIES WERE 6.0/115KT FROM
 JTWC AND SAB AND 6.5/127KT FROM PHFO. I HAVE INCREASED THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY TO 120 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.
  
 KILO CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST...AND THE INITIAL
 MOTION REMAINS 290/8 KT. THE MAIN DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL SHOW KILO
 MAINTAINING THE SAME FORWARD SPEED AND MAKING A TURN TOWARD THE
 NORTH NORTHWEST AS IT MOVES TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
 RIDGE. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE FORWARD MOTION WILL SLOW AS THE
 STEERING FLOW BECOMES WEAK. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING
 NORTH OF THE CYCLONE BY 72 HOURS AND CAUSING IT TO TAKE A TURN
 TOWARD THE WEST. THE MOST RECENT GLOBAL MODELS HAVE THE RIDGE
 WEAKER THAN EARLIER RUNS...SO THE TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE
 RIGHT AND IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
  
 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE PROJECTED TRACK ARE FORECAST
 TO REMAIN NEAR 29C. THE 0600 UTC UW/CIMSS ANALYSIS SHOWS FAIRLY LOW
 VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF ABOUT 10 KT FROM THE SOUTH. RECENT SATELLITE
 IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME DECREASE IN THE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS WEST
 OF THE HURRICANE. THAT SUGGESTS THE INTENSITY MAY HAVE PEAKED FOR
 THE TIME BEING...BUT ONLY VERY SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. 
  
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  30/0900Z 18.6N 176.8W  120 KT 140 MPH
  12H  30/1800Z 19.3N 177.8W  120 KT 140 MPH
  24H  31/0600Z 20.6N 178.8W  115 KT 135 MPH
  36H  31/1800Z 22.3N 179.7W  115 KT 135 MPH
  48H  01/0600Z 23.9N 179.7E  115 KT 135 MPH
  72H  02/0600Z 25.0N 178.5E  110 KT 125 MPH
  96H  03/0600Z 25.5N 177.0E  110 KT 125 MPH
 120H  04/0600Z 25.5N 175.0E  105 KT 120 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER DONALDSON