289 
 WTNT41 KNHC 070832
 TCDAT1
 
 HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  39
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
 500 AM AST WED OCT 07 2015
 
 The organization of Joaquin continues to slowly decrease, with the
 central convection now present only in the northeastern semicircle.
 Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are now 65 kt, and
 that is the advisory intensity.
 
 Joaquin is now moving over colder water north of the Gulf Stream,
 and the cyclone is gradually becoming embedded in a baroclinic zone.
 This combination should cause continued weakening and eventual
 extratropical transition.  The current expectation is that the
 central convection will dissipate before the cyclone develops
 fronts, so the intensity forecast calls for Joaquin to become
 post-tropical for about 12 hours before becoming extratropical.
 The new intensity forecast shows a slightly faster weakening than
 the previous forecast, and calls for Joaquin or its remnants to
 dissipate by 120 hours.
 
 Joaquin continues moving rapidly east-northeastward as it is
 embedded in strong westerly flow north of the subtropical ridge.
 This motion should continued for another 36 hours or so.  After
 that time, the guidance is now in better agreement that the cyclone
 should turn decelerate and turn east-southeastward as it comes under
 the influence of a developing deep-layer trough over western Europe.
 The new forecast track is an update of the previous track.
 
 The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts for 24 hours and
 beyond are based upon guidance provided by the Ocean Prediction
 Center.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  07/0900Z 40.5N  49.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
  12H  07/1800Z 41.4N  43.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
  24H  08/0600Z 42.4N  35.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  36H  08/1800Z 43.3N  28.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  48H  09/0600Z 44.2N  23.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  10/0600Z 44.0N  16.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  11/0600Z 43.0N  12.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven