380
WTNT44 KNHC 222031
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 PM EDT WED AUG 22 2007
AROUND 1630 UTC...THE CENTER OF DEAN MADE LANDFALL IN MEXICO AS A
CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE NEAR THE TOWN OF TECOLUTLA...ABOUT 40 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.
ALTHOUGH DEAN CONTINUES TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION...THE OVERALL
CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED. THE INITIAL ADVISORY INTENSITY IS
SET AT 60 KT. HOWEVER...STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE
LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/15. DEAN
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AND THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.
THE PRIMARY THREAT IS RAINFALL AND THE POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL MEXICO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/2100Z 20.5N 98.1W 60 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 23/0600Z 20.5N 100.5W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN
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