368 
 WTPA44 PHFO 050240
 TCDCP4
 
 HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  38
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132015
 500 PM HST FRI SEP 04 2015
  
 JIMENA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS 
 CONFINED TO NEAR THE CENTER WITH NO SIGN OF AN EYE. OUTFLOW HAS 
 IMPROVED IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH WESTERLY 
 VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASING TO MORE THAN 20 KT IN THE 0000 UTC 
 CIMSS ANALYSIS...THIS BURST OF OUTFLOW TO THE WEST SHOULD BE SHORT 
 LIVED. AN ASCAT PASS AT 1910 UTC DETECTED NUMEROUS AREAS OF 60 KT 
 WINDS IN NORTHWEST QUADRANT...AND GIVEN THE LOW BIAS OF ASCAT... 
 JIMENA WAS VERY LIKELY 10 KT STRONGER AT THE TIME. DVORAK CURRENT
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT 4.0/65 KT FROM ALL THE FIX
 AGENCIES...WHILE CIMSS ADT WAS DOWN TO LESS THAN 60 KT. THUS...THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY IS LOWERED TO 65 KT.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWEST...OR 330
 DEGREES...AT 3 KT. JIMENA WILL CONTINUE ON A SIMILAR TRACK WITH A
 RATHER SLOW FORWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. THIS
 MOTION WILL BE INDUCED BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PARKED JUST
 WEST OF HAWAII THAT WILL MAINTAIN A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE
 CENTERED OVER 1000 MILES NORTH OF JIMENA. THE GUIDANCE IS REMAINS
 TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DURING THIS TIME BUT CONTINUES TO DIVERGE
 SIGNIFICANTLY ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE. THIS MODEL DISAGREEMENT HINGES
 UPON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RIDGE ALOFT OVER AND NORTH OF HAWAII
 MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN
 NOTABLE SOUTHERN OUTLIERS...WHILE THE OFFICIAL TRACK CARRIES JIMENA
 WESTWARD...CLOSE TO TVCN AND SOUTH OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS ON
 DAYS FOUR AND FIVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM
 THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE ASIDE FROM AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON DAY
 FIVE.
 
 CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
 WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 20 KT OR MORE WILL PERSIST THROUGH 
 THE NEXT THREE DAYS THEN SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON DAYS FOUR
 AND FIVE. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISRUPT THE OUTFLOW AND LEAD TO 
 CONTINUED SLOW WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS
 THE PRIOR FORECAST TREND AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ICON AND
 HWRF. HOWEVER...NOTABLE DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE GUIDANCE. THE GFS 
 AND THE ECMWF MAINTAIN A STRONGER CYCLONE...WHILE SHIPS AND LGEM 
 WEAKEN JIMENA AT A MUCH FASTER RATE.
  
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  05/0300Z 20.3N 145.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
  12H  05/1200Z 21.0N 146.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
  24H  06/0000Z 22.0N 146.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  06/1200Z 23.0N 147.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
  48H  07/0000Z 23.9N 148.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  08/0000Z 24.8N 150.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
  96H  09/0000Z 24.8N 153.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 120H  10/0000Z 24.6N 157.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER WROE