622 
 WTNT44 KNHC 061753
 TCDAT4
 
 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  38
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
 200 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2016
 
 Based on satellite imagery and surface observations, the risk of
 tropical-storm-force winds reaching the coastline appears now to be
 minimal.  This special advisory is being issued to discontinue the
 remaining coastal tropical storm warnings and to terminate National
 Hurricane Center advisories on Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine.
 
 There has again been little change in the structure of Hermine since
 the last advisory, as it remains a post-tropical low pressure system
 with a few small patches of convection located to the south and west
 of the center.  Buoy data suggests the circulation is still slowly
 decaying, so the initial intensity is now a somewhat uncertain 45
 kt.  The post-tropical cyclone is expected to continue to weaken
 during the next couple of days due to the lack of baroclinic forcing
 and cool sea-surface temperatures along the forecast track, and the
 new intensity forecast has the winds decreasing below tropical storm
 force by 48 hours in agreement with the global models.  After that
 time, the system is expected to be absorbed by a new frontal system
 moving eastward across the New England States.
 
 After a brief slowing this morning, the center has moved a little
 faster and the initial motion is now 265/6.  Other than that, the
 track forecast reasoning is unchanged since the last advisory.  A
 slow and erratic motion, possibly including a cusp or a loop, is
 likely during the next 24 hours.  After that, the cyclone should
 move northeastward in advance of the above-mentioned frontal system.
 The new forecast track is a little faster than the previous track
 after 24 hours, and it is in best agreement with a blend of the GFS
 and ECMWF models.
 
 For future information on Hermine, please see products issued by
 your local NWS Forecast Office.  Additional information can be found
 in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
 AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the
 Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  06/1800Z 39.4N  72.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  12H  07/0000Z 39.3N  72.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  24H  07/1200Z 39.4N  72.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  36H  08/0000Z 39.9N  72.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  48H  08/1200Z 40.5N  71.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  72H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven