695 
 WTNT44 KNHC 071459
 TCDAT4
 
 HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  38
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
 1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 07 2016
 
 The satellite presentation has degraded during the past several
 hours, and the eye is not very distinct. However, the SFMR and
 flight-level wind data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane
 indicate that the initial intensity is still 105 kt.
 
 Matthew is expected to change little in intensity during the next 6
 to 12 hours, but it should begin to weaken at a faster pace in
 24 hours while the shear increases, and by the end of the forecast
 period, Matthew is expected to become a tropical depression.
 
 Fixes from a reconnaissance plane indicate that Matthew is moving
 toward the north-northwest or 345 degrees at 10 kt. Matthew is
 reaching the northwestern edge of the subtropical ridge and
 encounter the mid-latitude westerlies. This flow pattern should
 steer the hurricane northward and then northeastward during the
 next 36 hours. After that time, the flow pattern is forecast
 to change again and a weakening Matthew should then turn southward
 and southwestward. The NHC forecast is a little bit to the
 north from the previous one during the first 24 to 36 hour period
 following the multi-model consensus. After 72 hours, models
 continue to vary the flow pattern and the confidence in the track
 forecast is low.
 
 
 KEY MESSAGES:
 
 1.  We have been very fortunate that Matthew's category 3 winds have
 remained a short distance offshore of the Florida Coast thus far,
 but this should not be a reason to let down our guard.  Only a
 small deviation to the left of the forecast track could bring these
 winds onshore.  The western eyewall of Matthew, which contains
 hurricane-force winds, is expected to move over or very near the
 coast of northeastern Florida and Georgia today.
 
 2.  Hurricane winds increase very rapidly with height, and occupants
 of high-rise buildings in the Jacksonville area are at particular
 risk of strong winds. Winds at the top of a 30-story building will
 average one Saffir-Simpson category higher than the winds near the
 surface.
 
 3.  The water hazards remain, even if the core of Matthew remains
 offshore.  These include the danger of life-threatening inundation
 from storm surge, as well as inland flooding from heavy rains from
 Florida to North Carolina.
 
 4.  The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge
 Flooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for
 Matthew.  It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge
 Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation,
 but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario -- the amount of
 inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  07/1500Z 29.4N  80.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
  12H  08/0000Z 30.8N  80.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
  24H  08/1200Z 32.5N  79.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
  36H  09/0000Z 33.5N  78.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
  48H  09/1200Z 33.5N  76.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
  72H  10/1200Z 32.0N  74.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
  96H  11/1200Z 28.0N  75.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 120H  12/1200Z 27.0N  76.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila