623 
 WTNT44 KNHC 301441
 TCDAT4
  
 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  38
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012
 1000 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2012
  
 CENTER FIXES USING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER
 RADARS INDICATE THAT ISAAC IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 330/08 KT. 
 THE FORECAST TACK AND REASONING REMAIN BASICALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE
 PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ISAAC AND ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
 STEERED NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
 THAT IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH DAY 2...AND THEN
 TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND EASTWARD ON DAY 3-5 AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
 WEAK MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
 VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE LATEST
 DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
 THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 35 KT...AND THAT IS IN 
 SMALL AREA OVER WATER BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND THE
 MISSISSIPPI COAST...AND PERHAPS EXTENDING A FEW MILES INLAND.
 ISAAC WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER LAND AND IT IS LIKELY TO BECOME A
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THIS EVENING...AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
 REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY...IF NOT SOONER.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
 FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
 DECAY-SHIPS STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODEL.
 
 HEAVY RAINFALL AND A SIGNIFICANT FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO
 SPREAD INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES DURING
 THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WATER LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
 WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING. THE THREAT FOR
 TORNADOES WITH THIS SYSTEM ALSO APPEARS TO BE INCREASING TODAY.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  30/1500Z 31.7N  92.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
  12H  31/0000Z 33.0N  92.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
  24H  31/1200Z 35.0N  93.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
  36H  01/0000Z 37.0N  93.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
  48H  01/1200Z 38.4N  92.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  02/1200Z 39.4N  89.2W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  03/1200Z 39.5N  86.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  04/1200Z 39.5N  83.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER STEWART