372 
 WTNT42 KNHC 032037
 TCDAT2
 HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  38
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
 500 PM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010
  
 EARL HAS BEEN MOVING OVER COOLER WATER AND WEAKENING. BASED ON THE
 SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND EARLIER RECONNAISSANCE DATA...THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 70 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH CONTINUED
 WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED...EARL IS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR CAPE COD
 AS A HURRICANE WITH A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS.
 THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT A LARGE PORTION OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
 AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS. EARL IS EXPECTED TO REACH CANADA AS A
 STRONG TROPICAL STORM AND THEN BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 36
 HOURS.
  
 EARL IS STILL MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 030 DEGREES AT 18
 KNOTS...BUT IT SHOULD SOON INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED. THE HURRICANE
 HAS ALREADY RECURVED WHILE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD
 OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. EARL SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS
 GENERAL TRACK WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL DISSIPATION
 IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      03/2100Z 38.2N  71.8W    70 KT
  12HR VT     04/0600Z 41.2N  69.2W    60 KT
  24HR VT     04/1800Z 46.5N  64.0W    50 KT
  36HR VT     05/0600Z 51.5N  59.0W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  48HR VT     05/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA