716 
 WTNT43 KNHC 281422
 TCDAT3
 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2004
  
 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS NOW CLOSER TO
 THE CONVECTION WHICH HAS INCREASED A LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY. RECENT
 VISIBLE IMAGES ARE BEGINNING TO SUGGEST THAT LISA MAY 
 BE LOCATED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CURRENT ADVISORY POSITION.
 IN FACT..THERE IS A HINT OF AN EYE.  IF THIS IS CONFIRMED WITH
 ADDITIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY OR MICROWAVE DATA...THE INITIAL
 POSITION WILL BE ADJUSTED AND THE INTENSITY WILL HAVE TO BE
 INCREASED IN THE NEXT ADVISORY.  AT THIS TIME WE WOULD RATHER KEEP
 CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS LOCATION. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB
 ARE 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
 ADJUSTED TO 45 KNOTS. IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
 SHEAR WHICH PREVAILED OVER LISA...WILL RELAX AS AN UPPER LOW
 DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. THIS PATTERN WOULD ALLOW
 SOME INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
  
 LISA APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 10
 KNOTS BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH. LISA
 SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. DURING
 THIS PERIOD...LISA COULD MAKE A LITTLE JOG TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
 AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THERAFTER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD FINALLY TURN TO
 THE NORTHEAST EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
 CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS AND FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL
 MODEL CONSENSUS VERY CLOSELY.
 
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      28/1500Z 25.0N  47.1W    45 KT
  12HR VT     29/0000Z 26.6N  47.3W    45 KT
  24HR VT     29/1200Z 29.0N  47.5W    50 KT
  36HR VT     30/0000Z 31.0N  47.5W    55 KT
  48HR VT     30/1200Z 33.0N  47.5W    60 KT
  72HR VT     01/1200Z 36.0N  47.5W    60 KT
  96HR VT     02/1200Z 39.0N  44.0W    60 KT
 120HR VT     03/1200Z 41.0N  38.0W    50 KT
  
  
 $$