008 
 WTNT24 KNHC 110840
 TCMAT4
 HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  36
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092004
 0900Z SAT SEP 11 2004
  
 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
 ISLANDS.
  
 A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF
 YOUTH.
  
 AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE
 TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CABO CRUZ TO CIENFUEGOS.  TROPICAL
 STORM WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA FROM
 SATIAGO DE CUBA TO CIENFUEGOS.
  
 AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING
 IS DISCONTINUED FOR HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
  
 INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AS WELL AS IN THE
 EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
 DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.
  
 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N  78.0W AT 11/0900Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
  
 PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   9 KT
  
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  923 MB
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
 64 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
 50 KT....... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 34 KT.......150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.
 12 FT SEAS..360NE 180SE 180SW 200NW.
 WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
 MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
  
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N  78.0W AT 11/0900Z
 AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N  77.6W
  
 FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 18.3N  79.0W
 MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
 64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
 50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 19.3N  80.1W
 MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
 64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
 50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 20.6N  81.4W
 MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
 64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
 50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.0N  82.5W
 MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
 50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 25.9N  83.8W
 MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
 50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.
  
 EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
 ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 30.5N  84.0W...INLAND
 MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 36.0N  83.0W...INLAND
 MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
  
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N  78.0W
  
 NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z
  
 FORECASTER LAWRENCE
  
  
 $$