510 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 170237
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 PM PDT THU SEP 16 2004
  
 THE CLOCK IS TICKING ON ISIS...FOR THE SECOND TIME. NO DEEP
 CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 18 HOURS. ISIS REMAINS A SWIRL OF STRATUS AND
 STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. I AM LEAVING THE 30 KTS IN THIS PACKAGE BASED
 UPON THE EARLIER QUIKSCAT AND SSM/I OVERPASS INFORMATION. VERTICAL
 SHEAR AND COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVENT ANY
 SIGNIFICANT COMEBACK FOR THE MOMENT. WITH THE WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION
 THE SHIPS MODEL NOW CALLS FOR A REMNANT LOW OUT TO 120 HRS WITH NO
 DISSIPATION. ISIS SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 6-12 HOURS IF
 NO NEW DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 225/3  LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE CYCLONE
 SHOULD DRIFT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE
 GUIDANCE.
  
 FORECASTER JARVINEN
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      17/0300Z 17.8N 132.9W    30 KT
  12HR VT     17/1200Z 17.6N 133.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  24HR VT     18/0000Z 17.4N 133.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  36HR VT     18/1200Z 17.2N 134.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     19/0000Z 16.9N 135.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     20/0000Z 16.6N 136.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     21/0000Z 16.2N 137.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     22/0000Z 16.0N 139.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
  
 $$