122 
 WTNT41 KNHC 061443
 TCDAT1
 
 HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
 1100 AM AST TUE OCT 06 2015
 
 Joaquin is in a state of gradual decay.  Although an eye feature is
 still occasionally visible, there has been some erosion of the
 inner-core deep convection.  A series of microwaves images this
 morning indicate some eastward tilt of the vortex with height, and
 there is evidence of dry air entrainment into the inner core. Dvorak
 intensity estimates are slowly decreasing, and the initial wind
 speed is reduced to 70 kt. An increase in southwesterly shear and
 cooler waters along Joaquin's track should cause further weakening
 during the next few days. Cooler and drier air behind a low-level
 baroclinic zone currently draped to the north of the cyclone should
 gradually be advected into Joaquin's circulation during the next 24
 to 48 hours, and extratropical transition is expected to be complete
 in about 36 hours.  The new intensity forecast is near the
 multi-model consensus through 36 hours and then a bit above that
 after that time.
 
 Recent fixes indicate that Joaquin has is accelerating
 northeastward, and the initial motion estimate is 055/16.  The
 cyclone is expected to further accelerate toward the east-northeast
 as it becomes fully embedded in a belt of nearly zonal middle- to
 upper-tropospheric flow during the next few days.  After
 extratropical transition, Joaquin should experience a significant
 deceleration when it approaches the British Isles.  The track
 guidance is tightly clustered through 48 hours, with somewhat
 greater spread after that time.  The new track forecast is about the
 same as the previous one and lies near the multi-model consensus for
 the remainder of the forecast period.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  06/1500Z 38.3N  59.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
  12H  07/0000Z 39.5N  55.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
  24H  07/1200Z 40.8N  48.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
  36H  08/0000Z 42.0N  40.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
  48H  08/1200Z 43.3N  32.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  09/1200Z 46.2N  21.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  10/1200Z 49.3N  14.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  11/1200Z 49.8N  10.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
 $$
 Forecaster Kimberlain