176 
 WTNT44 KNHC 220234
 TCDAT4
 HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
 1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007
  
 DEAN APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING A LARGE RAGGED EYE ON SATELLITE
 IMAGERY. AN AIR FORCE PLANE REACHED DEAN AND MEASURED A MINIMUM
 PRESSURE OF 979 MB AND FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 84 KNOTS.
 HOWEVER...THE SFMR HAS ONLY MEASURED 59 KNOTS SO FAR.  SINCE DEEP
 CONVECTION IS RETURNING...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 70
 KNOTS...WHICH IS A BLEND OF BOTH MEASUREMENTS AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS.
 DEAN IS FORECAST TO RESTRENGTHEN BEFORE LANDFALL BUT IS RUNNING OUT
 OF TIME TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE.  AFTER LANDFALL...THE SURFACE
 CIRCULATION SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME DISRUPTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
 OF CENTRAL MEXICO...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE FROM DEAN COULD SPREAD
 NORTHWARD.
  
 DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS
 AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS GENERAL
 MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL SINCE THE STEERING
 CURRENTS ARE NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE.
  
 THE MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATIC STATION LOCATED AT CAYO ARCAS RECENTLY
 MEASURED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 46 KNOTS...GUSTS TO 63 KNOTS AND A
 MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 986.3 MB. NOAA BUOY 42055 IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
 GULF OF MEXICO MEASURED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 38 KNOTS AND A GUST TO
 43 KNOTS.  
 
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      22/0300Z 19.9N  93.0W    70 KT
  12HR VT     22/1200Z 20.7N  95.6W    85 KT
  24HR VT     23/0000Z 21.4N  99.0W    40 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     23/1200Z 22.0N 102.0W    25 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA