577 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 162035
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 2 PM PDT THU SEP 16 2004
  
 ISIS REMAINS A CONVECTION SWIRL OF OF STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS
 CLOUDS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.  EARLIER QUIKSCAT AND SSM/I
 OVERPASSES INDICATED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KT...AND BASED ON THIS THE
 CYCLONE IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  VERTICAL SHEAR AND
 COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT
 COMEBACK FOR THE MOMENT...AS EVEN THE SHIPS MODEL IS NOW CALLING
 FOR DISSIPATION IN 24 HOURS.  ISIS SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN
 24-36 HR...AND THEN DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 120 HR.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY DUBIOUS 205/2.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS
 SUGGEST THE CYCLONE SHOULD DRIFT GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNTIL
 DISSIPATION...AND THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE GUIDANCE.
  
 FORECASTER BEVEN
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      16/2100Z 18.0N 132.4W    30 KT
  12HR VT     17/0600Z 17.9N 132.6W    25 KT
  24HR VT     17/1800Z 17.8N 133.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  36HR VT     18/0600Z 17.7N 134.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     18/1800Z 17.3N 134.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     19/1800Z 17.0N 136.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     20/1800Z 17.0N 137.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
  
 $$