703 
 WTNT43 KNHC 160232
 TCDAT3
 
 Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number  35
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082018
 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 15 2018
 
 The cloud pattern of Helene has continued to be disrupted by the
 high shear and cold waters.  The center is well displaced to the
 west of the convection, and based on continuity plus the latest
 Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is set at 50 kt.  Helene is
 heading toward even colder waters and extremely high shear.  This
 should cause the cyclone to become extratropical in 24 hours or
 sooner as indicated by the SHIPS guidance.  By 72 hours, the cyclone
 should have been absorbed by a much larger low.
 
 Helene is moving toward the northeast or 050 degrees at 22 kt.
 Since the cyclone is embedded in the westerlies, this general
 track should continue with an increase in forward speed until
 dissipation.  This is consistent with track models which are in
 excellent agreement.  On the forecast track, Helene should head
 toward Ireland and the United Kingdom Sunday night and Monday as a
 strong extratropical cyclone. Interests in those locations should
 consult products from their local meteorological service for
 information about potential impacts from Helene.  Local forecasts
 and warnings for the UK can be found on the website of the UK Met
 Office at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/.  Local forecasts and
 warnings for Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann at
 https://www.met.ie/.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  16/0300Z 41.2N  30.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  16/1200Z 43.2N  26.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  17/0000Z 45.5N  21.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  36H  17/1200Z 49.0N  13.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  48H  18/0000Z 53.5N   6.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila