802 
 WTNT44 KNHC 212031
 TCDAT4
 HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007
  
 DEAN HAS EMERGED INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY
 OF 70 KT IS AGAIN BASED ON TYPICAL DECAY RATES...AND HIGHLY
 UNCERTAIN.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL
 BE IN THE CYCLONE AROUND 00Z TO ASCERTAIN THE TRUE STRENGTH OF
 DEAN.  BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE INNER CORE OF DEAN APPEARS
 TO BE LARGELY INTACT...WITH DEEP CONVECTION DIRECTLY OVER THE
 CENTER.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW RESTRENGTHENING TO BEGIN FAIRLY
 QUICKLY...AND DEAN COULD BE VERY NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY THE
 TIME OF ITS LANDFALL IN THE WESTERN GULF.  THE SHIPS MODEL FORECAST
 APPEARS TO BE OVERLY INFLUENCED BY THE RECENT DECAY AND HAS BEEN
 DISCOUNTED FOR THIS ADVISORY.  AFTER LANDFALL...THE SURFACE
 CIRCULATION SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME DISRUPTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
 OF CENTRAL MEXICO...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE FROM DEAN COULD END UP
 WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT
 SEVERAL DAYS.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE 280/17...AND THERE CONTINUES TO
 BE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST.  HIGH PRESSURE
 NORTH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO STEER DEAN ON A TRACK
 JUST NORTH OF WEST.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE MORE DIVERGENT THIS
 AFTERNOON...WITH THE UKMET SHOWING A BIT OF JOG TO THE RIGHT JUST
 BEFORE LANDFALL.  HOWEVER...THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE IS LARGELY
 UNCHANGED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE
 PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
   
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      21/2100Z 19.4N  91.3W    70 KT
  12HR VT     22/0600Z 19.8N  93.9W    85 KT
  24HR VT     22/1800Z 20.5N  97.1W    95 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     23/0600Z 21.0N 100.5W    30 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN