537 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 150242
 TCDEP4
 
 TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016
 800 PM PDT THU JUL 14 2016
 
 Deep convection within Celia has been steadily deteriorating with
 only a few patches of moderately cold cloud tops existing in the
 northern semicircle.  Consistent with this downward trend, the SAB
 and TAFB subjective Dvorak classifications have dropped to current
 intensity numbers of 2.0 and 2.5, respectively, suggesting an
 intensity of 30-35 kt.  However, a recent ASCAT-A scatterometer pass
 indicated that peak winds near 50 kt were still occurring.  Assuming
 some weakening since that time, the initial intensity is assessed at
 45 kt.
 
 Despite the resilience of the vortex today, Celia should soon
 succumb to the effects of cool 24-25 deg C SSTs, a stable
 atmosphere, and convergent upper-level flow.  Thus it is
 anticipated the the system will lose its deep convection and become
 a post-tropical cyclone on Friday and degenerate to a remnant low by
 Saturday.  Due in part to the strong synoptic-scale pressure
 gradient to Celia's north, the system should be able to maintain
 peak winds of about 30 kt for the next few days.  The NHC intensity
 forecast is based upon the IVCN consensus, in which the
 statistical models dissipate Celia more quickly, while the
 dynamical models hold on to Celia perhaps too robustly.
 
 Celia is moving toward the west-northwest at about 12 kt due to the
 steering influence of a strong subtropical ridge to its northeast.
 As the cyclone decays, it should be carried along in the low-level
 easterly trade wind flow toward the west at about the same forward
 speed. The NHC track forecast is based upon the TVCN consensus,
 which shows a tight packing of its individual members.  On the
 forecast track, Celia is expected to move into the Central Pacific
 basin tomorrow morning.
 
 The scatterometer pass indicated that the tropical-storm-force wind
 radii were somewhat larger than earlier analyzed.  Consistent with a
 larger-sized circulation, an altimeter pass showed that the extent
 of 12-ft seas was also substantially larger than indicated in the
 last advisory.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  15/0300Z 21.8N 139.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  15/1200Z 22.2N 140.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  16/0000Z 22.3N 143.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  36H  16/1200Z 22.4N 145.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  17/0000Z 22.8N 148.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  18/0000Z 23.8N 152.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  19/0000Z 24.5N 157.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  20/0000Z 25.4N 162.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Landsea