695 
 WTPA43 PHFO 081501
 TCDCP3
 
 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP092014
 500 AM HST FRI AUG 08 2014
  
 BASED ON WSR-88D DATA...ISELLE MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE BIG ISLAND/S 
 KAU COAST AROUND 230 AM HST...AND IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST OVER 
 LEEWARD BIG ISLAND AS OF ADVISORY TIME. THE CYCLONE IS WEAKENING 
 RAPIDLY...AS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE BIG ISLAND IS DISRUPTING THE 
 CIRCULATION WHILE THE SYSTEM IS ALSO ENCOUNTERING 25 TO 30 KT OF 
 NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AS DEPICTED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND UW-CIMSS 
 ANALYSES.  
 
 INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/11 KT...AS ISELLE LIES ALONG THE 
 SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WITH A WEAKNESS IN 
 THE RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH. ISELLE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
 TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AFTER EMERGING FROM THE BIG ISLAND LATER 
 THIS MORNING. A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT DIGGING SOUTHWARD 
 ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL ADD TO THE ALREADY STRONG SHEAR... 
 WITH 20 TO 30 KT OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 36 
 HOURS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO THE EVENTUAL DECAY OF THE SYSTEM...WITH 
 REMNANT LOW STATUS FORECAST BY TAU 36...AND DISSIPATION ANTICIPATED 
 BY DAY 3.  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  08/1500Z 19.3N 156.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
  12H  09/0000Z 19.7N 158.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  09/1200Z 20.3N 160.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  10/0000Z 20.8N 162.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  10/1200Z 21.4N 165.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 
 FORECASTER BIRCHARD