977 
 WTPA44 PHFO 070850
 TCDCP4
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP092015
 1100 PM HST THU AUG 06 2015
  
 THE TOTALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...LLCC...OF
 GUILLERMO IS EVIDENT IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WSR-88D
 RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA THIS EVENING. THERE HAS BEEN ONE LONE
 THUNDERSTORM WITH A TOP NEAR 32 THOUSAND FEET LOCATED ABOUT 90 MILES
 NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND
 SHEAR CONTINUES TO INHIBIT ANY MORE THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING...
 ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CENTER. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM HFO AND ADT PROVIDED T NUMBERS OF 1.5...AND
 SAB WHILE JTWC DECLARED THE SYSTEM TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY. THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
  
 EARLIER TODAY...THE CENTER OF GUILLERMO DID A CYCLONIC WOBBLE JUST
 NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. NOW THAT THIS TEMPORARY
 SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION HAS PASSED...THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO
 ACCELERATE JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST...OR 280 DEGREES...AT 12 KT.
 THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...
 WHICH CARRIES THE LLCC ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL
 SURFACE RIDGE LOCATED FAR NORTH OF HAWAII. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK
 REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS SOUTH
 OF BAMS. THIS TRACK TAKES A WEAKENING GUILLERMO JUST NORTH OF THE
 WESTERN HALF OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
  
 GUILLERMO WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
 PERSISTS. THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE
 PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE SHALLOW EXPOSED LLCC DEMONSTRATES THAT
 THE WARM CORE IS LIKELY GONE. GUILLERMO HAS A NEAR ZERO CHANCE OF
 REDEVELOPMENT AS A FLATTENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL
 MAINTAIN STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ALOFT IN THE
 VICINITY OF THE DEPRESSION AND ITS REMNANTS DURING THE NEXT FEW
 DAYS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS SHIPS AND LGEM...AND
 NOW INDICATES GUILLERMO WILL WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY EARLY
 FRIDAY...WITH DISSIPATION ON SATURDAY.
  
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  07/0900Z 22.2N 157.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  07/1800Z 22.6N 159.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  24H  08/0600Z 23.2N 161.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER HOUSTON