759 
 WTNT44 KNHC 211444
 TCDAT4
 HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
 1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007
  
 AFTER MAKING LANDFALL IN A SPARSELY-POPULATED AREA...DEAN CONTINUES
 TO TRAVERSE THE SPARSELY-POPULATED SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN
 PENINSULA. THE EYE HAS FILLED AND CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING. THE
 INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 90 KT BASED ON THE DECAY COMPONENT OF THE
 SHIPS MODEL. DEAN IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN
 ANOTHER 3 TO 5 HOURS AS A HURRICANE...AND WILL HAVE ABOUT 18 HOURS
 OVER WATER TO REGAIN STRENGTH. SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
 THAT DEAN COULD APPROACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS AGAIN...ALTHOUGH
 THE AMOUNT OF RESTRENGTHENING WILL BE HARD TO GAUGE UNTIL WE SEE
 HOW MUCH OF THE INNER CORE OF THE HURRICANE SURVIVES ITS PASSAGE
 OVER LAND.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/17. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
 TRACK FORECASTING THINKING. DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE
 NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE ON A WEST-
 NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD HEADING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
 OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS IN
 BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND GFDL MODEL.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      21/1500Z 19.0N  89.6W    90 KT
  12HR VT     22/0000Z 19.4N  92.2W    85 KT
  24HR VT     22/1200Z 20.0N  95.5W    95 KT
  36HR VT     23/0000Z 20.5N  98.7W    50 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     23/1200Z 21.0N 101.5W    25 KT...INLAND
  72HR VT     24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN