764 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 070236
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006
 800 PM PDT WED SEP 06 2006
 
 KRISTY IS PRODUCING ONLY A FEW ISOLATED CELLS OF DEEP CONVECTION AT
 THIS TIME AS IT MOVES INTO A RATHER STABLE AIR MASS.  THE SYSTEM
 WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE OCEAN WATERS JUST WARM ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
 A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO
 BECOME VERY STRONG...DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THEREFORE THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS THE SYSTEM IN ITS PRESENT STATE FOR
 SEVERAL DAYS.  IN FACT...THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT KRISTY COULD
 EVEN RE-STRENGTHEN.  GIVEN THE TENACIOUS NATURE OF THIS TROPICAL
 CYCLONE...THAT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISING TURN OF EVENTS.
 ALTERNATIVELY...HOWEVER...IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS VIRTUALLY DEVOID OF
 DEEP CONVECTION FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO IT WOULD DISSIPATE MUCH
 SOONER THAN INDICATED HERE.
 
 THE FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED JUST A TAD...TO 10 OR 11 KT.  A
 WEAKENING MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH OF KRISTY SHOULD
 MAINTAIN A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
 FORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS
 VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE ALBEIT A LITTLE SLOWER BECAUSE
 OF THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER INITIAL FORWARD SPEED.  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      07/0300Z 16.5N 128.7W    30 KT
  12HR VT     07/1200Z 16.6N 130.5W    30 KT
  24HR VT     08/0000Z 16.7N 132.5W    30 KT
  36HR VT     08/1200Z 16.8N 134.3W    30 KT
  48HR VT     09/0000Z 16.9N 136.2W    30 KT
  72HR VT     10/0000Z 17.0N 139.5W    30 KT
  96HR VT     11/0000Z 17.0N 142.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 120HR VT     12/0000Z 17.0N 145.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH