051 
 WTPA42 PHFO 262040
 TCDCP2
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEKI DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032009
 1100 AM HST MON OCT 26 2009
 
 THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE MORNING REVEALED AN ELLIPTICAL LLCC
 THAT IS STARTING TO ACCELERATE NORTHWARD. THE REMAINING DEEP 
 CONVECTION IS MORE THAN 3/4 OF A DEGREE TO THE SOUTH OF THE EXPOSED
 LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE 1700 UTC UW/CIMSS SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE
 WAS 29 KNOTS...AND THE AVERAGE OF THE FINAL T AND CURRENT INTENSITY
 NUMBERS FROM PHFO...SAB...AND JTWC WAS 2.2. THUS THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY IS BEING LOWERED TO 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
 NEKI/S TIME AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS WINDING DOWN. THE CYCLONE IS
 CURRENTLY OVER SUB-27C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND IS APPROACHING
 A SHARP GRADIENT IN SST. MODERATE SOUTHWEST SHEAR IS LIKELY GOING
 TO INCREASE AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES NORTH. FINALLY...A STRONG
 AUTUMN COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING NEKI FROM THE WEST. NEKI WILL
 CONTINUE TO PICK UP SPEED IN THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
 THIS FRONT AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW OR DISSIPATE
 WITHIN 24 HOURS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      26/2100Z 28.1N 165.7W    30 KT
  12HR VT     27/0600Z 30.7N 165.6W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
  24HR VT     27/1800Z 35.7N 163.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  36HR VT     28/0600Z...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 
 FORECASTER R BALLARD