011 
 WTNT43 KNHC 271457
 TCDAT3
 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 AM EDT MON SEP 27 2004
  
 METEOSAT-8 AND GOES-12 VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW LISA REMAINS AS A
 SHEARED SYSTEM WITH AN EXPOSED CENTER. THE CONVECTION IN THE
 NORTHEAST QUADRANT CONTINUES TO PULSATE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY IS 40 KTS BASED ON TAFB AND SAB DVORAK CI NUMBERS
 OF 3.0 AND 2.5.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/5. LISA IS CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF
 A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. IN THE SHORT TERM...MODELS SUGGEST THAT LISA
 WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED BY THIS MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND IT WILL
 KEEP LISA ON A MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK. HOWEVER...THE MODELS
 DIVERGE IN THE LATER FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE NOGAPS AND GFDN
 CONTINUING MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WHILE THE OTHER GUIDANCE
 STEERS THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TENDS
 TOWARD CONU AND GUNS MODEL CONSENSUS BUT SLOWS THE MOTION AT THE
 LONGER TIME PERIOD.
 
 LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST AS STRONG-TO-MODERATE SHEAR
 REMAINS OVER THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. BEYOND 36 HOURS...
 THE SHEAR LOWERS AND ALLOWS LISA TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN. THE NHC
 INTENSITY FORECAST HOLDS THE INTENSITY FOR 48 HOURS AND THEN
 STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE FORCE IS FORECAST IN THE LATER TIME
 PERIOD. IF LISA CAN MAINTAIN ITSELF IN THE PRESENCE OF THE CURRENT
 SHEAR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
 LISA TO BECOME A HURRICANE AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A LOW SHEAR
 ENVIRONMENT AND WARM SST REGIME.
  
 FORECASTER SISKO/PASCH
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      27/1500Z 20.8N  46.5W    40 KT
  12HR VT     28/0000Z 21.8N  47.0W    40 KT
  24HR VT     28/1200Z 23.2N  47.7W    40 KT
  36HR VT     29/0000Z 24.6N  48.5W    40 KT
  48HR VT     29/1200Z 26.0N  48.9W    45 KT
  72HR VT     30/1200Z 29.0N  49.8W    55 KT
  96HR VT     01/1200Z 31.0N  50.5W    65 KT
 120HR VT     02/1200Z 33.0N  51.0W    65 KT
  
  
 $$