582 
 WTNT43 KNHC 151435
 TCDAT3
 
 Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number  33
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082018
 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 15 2018
 
 The cloud pattern of Helene is starting to show signs of decay, with
 the central convection decreasing since the previous advisory and
 the low-level center becoming partly exposed in a region between
 convective bands.  The initial intensity is held at 60 kt for this
 advisory in best agreement with the CIMSS satellite consensus, but
 it is possible this is generous.  The 34-kt wind radii in the
 southeastern quadrant were revised based on a partial ASCAT pass.
 
 Helene is moving toward colder water and into an area of strong
 shear associated with the mid-latitude westerlies.  This should
 cause the system to weaken and, as it merges with a frontal system,
 become an extratropical cyclone in about 36 h.  The global models
 forecast Helene to be absorbed into a large non-tropical low over
 the far north Atlantic after it passes Ireland and the United
 Kingdom, and thus the system is forecast to dissipate completely
 between 72-96 h.
 
 Helene has turned northeastward with the initial motion now 035/18.
 A faster motion toward the northeast should occur during the
 remainder of the cyclone's life as it becomes more embedded in the
 westerlies.  On the forecast track, Helene should pass near or over
 the western Azores later today or tonight, and head toward Ireland
 and the United Kingdom late this weekend and early next week.
 There are no significant changes to either the track guidance or the
 official forecast track since the last advisory.
 
 Tropical storm conditions should spread over portions of the Azores
 during the next several hours and continue through tonight.
 
 Helene is also expected to be a storm-force post-tropical cyclone
 when it approaches Ireland and the United Kingdom in two to three
 days.  Interests in those locations should consult products from
 their local meteorological service for information about potential
 impacts from Helene.  Local forecasts and warnings for the UK can be
 found on the website of the UK Met Office at
 https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/.  Local forecasts and warnings for
 Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann at
 https://www.met.ie/.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  15/1500Z 38.8N  34.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
  12H  16/0000Z 40.8N  31.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
  24H  16/1200Z 43.0N  27.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  17/0000Z 45.5N  21.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  48H  17/1200Z 49.0N  15.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  18/1200Z 59.0N   1.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven