147 
 WTNT42 KNHC 021456
 TCDAT2
 HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
 1100 AM EDT THU SEP 02 2010
 
 THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF EARL
 DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  HOWEVER..MICROWAVE INAGERY SUGGEST THAT
 AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT COULD OCCUR SOON...IN WHICH CASE THE WIND
 FIELD WOULD BECOME LARGER.  THE HURRICANE CONTINUES WITH A DISTINCT
 EYE SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
 AND DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATE
 THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 120 KNOTS.  EARL PROBABLY HAS ALREADY
 REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND IT SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO WEAKEN
 GRADUALLY AS THE SHEAR INCREASES. THE HURRICANE SHOULD WEAKEN EVEN
 FASTER AFTER 36 HOURS...AS IT MOVES OVER A COLDER OCEAN.  EARL
 SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS AND DISSIPATE THEREAFTER AS
 IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. 
 
 AS ANTICIPATED...EARL HAS BEGUN TO MOVE NORTHWARD OR 355 DEGREES AT
 16 KNOTS.  SINCE THE STEERING PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED...EARL IS
 FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTHWARD TODAY. IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...THE
 HURRICANE SHOULD BE ENCOUNTERING THE BASE OF THE MID-LATITUDE
 WESTERLIES AND EARL SHOULD THEN TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
 AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THIS SHARP TURN
 HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATED FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST AND BY THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TRACK GUIDANCE.
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      02/1500Z 30.9N  74.8W   120 KT
  12HR VT     03/0000Z 33.5N  75.0W   115 KT
  24HR VT     03/1200Z 36.5N  73.5W   100 KT
  36HR VT     04/0000Z 40.0N  70.8W    85 KT
  48HR VT     04/1200Z 44.0N  67.0W    65 KT
  72HR VT     05/1200Z 53.5N  62.0W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96HR VT     06/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA