845 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 141446
 TCDEP4
 
 TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016
 800 AM PDT THU JUL 14 2016
 
 Celia has continued to maintain a small area of deep convection
 this morning, however recent microwave imagery shows that the area
 of cold cloud tops has become separated from the low-level
 center due to some southwesterly shear.  Dvorak current intensity
 numbers of T3.0 from both TAFB and SAB and the earlier ASCAT data
 support keeping an initial wind speed of 45 kt.  The remaining
 convection should gradually decrease in coverage while Celia
 moves over SSTs around 24C during the next day or so.  This should
 result in weakening, and Celia is forecast to become a
 post-tropical cyclone in 24 to 36 hours.  After that time, the
 cyclone will be moving over slightly warmer SSTs, but moderate
 to strong westerly shear should prevent regeneration.  A tight
 pressure gradient between the post-tropical cyclone and a strong
 high pressure area to the north will likely help maintain winds
 of around 30 kt with the system for several days.
 
 Recent microwave fixes indicate that Celia is moving west-
 northwestward, or 295/10 kt.  The cyclone should continue moving
 west-northwestward today, but is forecast to turn westward on
 Friday as it becomes a shallow system and is steered by the
 low-level easterly flow.  The NHC forecast track is close to the
 GFS, GFS ensemble mean, and the multi-model consensus, which are
 all in fairly close agreement.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  14/1500Z 20.8N 136.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  15/0000Z 21.4N 138.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  15/1200Z 21.7N 140.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  16/0000Z 22.0N 143.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  16/1200Z 22.3N 145.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  17/1200Z 23.0N 149.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  18/1200Z 23.7N 154.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  19/1200Z 24.5N 160.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown