954 
 WTNT44 KNHC 060254
 TCDAT4
 
 HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
 1100 PM EDT WED OCT 05 2016
 
 Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
 showed lower winds in Matthew than seen during the previous
 mission, with peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 103 kt and estimates
 near 95 kt from the SFMR instrument.  Based on these, the initial
 intensity is reduced to 100 kt.  However, satellite imagery
 indicates that the hurricane is becoming better organized, with the
 eye trying to re-appear and cooling cloud tops near the center.  In
 addition, the eye has contracted to 15 n mi wide and the central
 pressure has fallen to 961 mb.  This suggests that the winds are
 about to increase.
 
 The initial motion is 320/9.  There is little change to the
 synoptic reasoning or the forecast track through 48 hours.  Matthew
 is expected to move around the western side of the subtropical
 ridge, which should move slowly eastward during the next couple of
 days.  This evolution should steer Matthew generally northwestward
 for the next 24 hours or so, followed by a turn toward the
 north-northwest.  This forecast track takes the center near Andros
 Island and New Providence in about 12 hours, and then very near the
 eastern coast of the the Florida peninsula.  This part of the
 forecast track is west of the various consensus models, but it lies
 near the GFS, ECMWF, and ECMWF ensemble mean.  From 48-72 hours, the
 cyclone is expected to recurve northeastward along the southern edge
 of the mid-latitude westerlies.  After 72 hours, the track guidance
 become very divergent, with solutions ranging from a continued
 eastward motion out to sea to a turn back to the southwest.  The new
 forecast track shows a slow southeastward motion during this time
 in best agreement with the ECMWF.
 
 As mentioned above, Matthew is getting better organized, and during
 the next 36 hours or so it should be moving through an area of
 light vertical wind shear.  This should allow strengthening, and
 the new intensity forecast calls for the system to reach an
 intensity near 115 kt in about 36 hours.  This is near the upper
 end of the intensity guidance.  After 36 hours, proximity to land
 and increasing shear should cause weakening, and the cyclone is now
 expected to be down to tropical storm strength by 120 hours.
 Overall, the intensity forecast is in best agrement with the SHIPS
 model.
 
 
 KEY MESSAGES:
 
 1.  Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm
 surge, extreme winds, and heavy rains in the Bahamas.  Please
 consult statements from the meteorological service and other
 government officials in that country.
 
 2.  When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel
 to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through
 South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at
 any one location.  For example, only a small deviation of the track
 to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major
 hurricane onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida.
 However, a small deviation to the right could keep the hurricane-
 force winds offshore.  Similarly large variations in impacts are
 possible in the hurricane watch area in northern Florida and
 Georgia.
 
 3.  Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect South
 Carolina and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if
 the center of Matthew remains offshore.  It is too soon to determine
 what, if any, land areas might be directly affected by Matthew next
 week.  At a minimum, dangerous beach and boating conditions are
 likely along much of the U.S. east coast during the next several
 days.
 
 4.  The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge
 Flooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for
 Matthew.  It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge
 Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation,
 but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of
 inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.  In
 addition, because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend
 out only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding
 potential in those locations within the watch and warning areas in
 Florida and Georgia.
 
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  06/0300Z 23.4N  76.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
  12H  06/1200Z 24.6N  77.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
  24H  07/0000Z 26.4N  79.2W  115 KT 130 MPH
  36H  07/1200Z 28.2N  80.4W  115 KT 130 MPH
  48H  08/0000Z 30.1N  81.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
  72H  09/0000Z 32.5N  78.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
  96H  10/0000Z 32.0N  75.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 120H  11/0000Z 30.5N  73.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven