942 
 WTNT42 KNHC 020907
 TCDAT2
 HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
 500 AM EDT THU SEP 02 2010
 
 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED 140 KT WINDS
 AT 700 MB IN THE NORTHEASTERN EYEWALL.  AN EYE DROPSONDE REPORTED A
 SURFACE PRESSURE OF 929 MB WITH A WIND OF 25 KT...SUGGESTING A
 CENTRAL PRESSURE NEAR 928 MB.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 125 KT.  EARL IS LIKELY NEAR PEAK
 INTENSITY AT THIS TIME...AS THE EYEWALL CONVECTION IS BECOMING A
 LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/16.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO EITHER THE
 FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OF THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 48 HR. 
 EARL SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE
 END OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ENTERS THE WESTERLIES.  THE TRACK
 MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND THIS SOLUTION...AND THE
 NEW TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE CLUSTER.  AFTER 48 HR...THE
 GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT DUE TO CHANGES IN THE INTERACTION
 OF EARL WITH A STRONG WESTERLY TROUGH DURING EXTRATROPICAL
 TRANSITION.  THE 48-72 HR TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE LEFT...BUT
 STILL LIES ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
 THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS EARL SHOULD MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT
 INTENSITY FOR 12 HR OR SO.  AFTER THAT...INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
 SHEAR AND MOTION OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
 CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING.  EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN AT
 ABOUT 48 HR AND BE COMPLETE BY 72 HR...WITH THE REMNANTS OF EARL
 BEING ABSORBED INTO A LARGER BAROCLINIC LOW BY 96 HR.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      02/0900Z 29.3N  74.7W   125 KT
  12HR VT     02/1800Z 31.7N  75.3W   125 KT
  24HR VT     03/0600Z 34.8N  74.6W   115 KT
  36HR VT     03/1800Z 38.1N  72.6W   100 KT
  48HR VT     04/0600Z 41.6N  69.2W    85 KT
  72HR VT     05/0600Z 50.5N  62.5W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96HR VT     06/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN