075 
 WTNT44 KNHC 210258
 TCDAT4
 HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
 1100 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2007
  
 DEAN HAS TAPPED INTO ENERGY PROVIDED BY THE DEEP WARM WATERS OF THE
 NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THIS EVENING...AND HAS REACHED CATEGORY
 FIVE STATUS WITH AN INTENSITY OF 140 KT.  DURING THE LAST
 PENETRATION BY THE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
 AT 00Z...A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 914 MB WAS MEASURED.  THE PEAK
 FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND WAS 162 KT...WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 145 KT AT
 THE SURFACE.  DUE TO COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEMS...WE HAVE NOT RECEIVED
 ALL OF THE DROPSONDE AND SFMR DATA IN REAL-TIME.  THE ADVISORY
 INTENSITY IS SET TO A POSSIBLY CONSERVATIVE 140 KT...PENDING A MORE
 THOROUGH EXAMINATION OF ALL OF THE AIRCRAFT DATA.  ANOTHER AIRCRAFT
 WILL ARRIVE IN THE EYE OF DEAN IN A FEW HOURS...PRIOR TO LANDFALL
 ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  THE EVOLVING
 SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF DEAN REVEALS AN INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC
 CONVECTIVE PATTERN...AND A VERY WELL-DEFINED AND GRADUALLY
 CONTRACTING EYE WITH A DIAMETER OF ABOUT 20 N MI.  REPORTS FROM THE
 AIRCRAFT...AND RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY...PROVIDE NO
 INDICATIONS OF ANY INNER-CORE STRUCTURAL CHANGES THAT WOULD LEAD TO
 WEAKENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
 ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.  DEAN IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE
 STATUS DURING ITS ENTIRE STAY OVER YUCATAN...AND IT COULD STILL
 REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BEFORE FINAL
 LANDFALL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.
 
 THE HURRICANE GENERALLY REMAINS ON TRACK WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF
 275/17.  A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
 SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH DEAN ROUGHLY ALONG THIS SAME HEADING AND
 SPEED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL DISSIPATION OVER MAINLAND
 MEXICO.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AGAIN ADJUSTED TO THE SOUTH
 IN ORDER TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT WELL-ESTABLISHED HEADING...AND TO
 BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...GFS...AND
 NOGAPS MODELS.  ALONG THE NEW TRACK...DEAN WILL SPEND A LITTLE LESS
 TIME OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND WILL PASS A LITTLE CLOSER TO
 THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE 24-36
 HOUR PERIOD.  AS A RESULT...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
 ISSUED ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      21/0300Z 18.4N  86.0W   140 KT
  12HR VT     21/1200Z 18.7N  88.6W   140 KT...INLAND OVER YUCATAN
  24HR VT     22/0000Z 19.2N  92.1W    85 KT...BAY OF CAMPECHE
  36HR VT     22/1200Z 19.6N  95.6W    95 KT...BAY OF CAMPECHE
  48HR VT     23/0000Z 19.6N  99.1W    30 KT...INLAND OVER MEXICO
  72HR VT     24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KNABB/ROBERTS