231 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 061437
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006
 800 AM PDT WED SEP 06 2006
  
 ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A RECENT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION
 NEAR THE CENTER THIS MORNING...AND BANDING FEATURE DEVELOPMENT TO
 THE SOUTHEAST.  ALTHOUGH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED
 TO 30 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT
 35 KT BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE TREND. THE INTENSITY
 FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH THE INTENSITY
 MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW SOME STRENGTHENING OR LITTLE CHANGE
 DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  BEYOND DAY 3...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
 VERTICAL SHEAR AND COOLER WATER SHOULD INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND
 THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
 
 INITIAL MOTION IS 280/13...WITH A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE LEFT OF
 THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND A
 0208Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING WITHIN THE
 LOW TO MID LAYER EASTERLY FLOW OF A RIDGE TO THE NORTH...WITH
 LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH DAY 5.  THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST TO THE LEFT AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
 FORECAST AND IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
 THROUGH DAY 3.  THEN...THE FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE
 UKMET/GFDL AND NOGAPS...WHICH ARE THE ONLY REMAINING MODELS THAT
 DEPICT A CLOSED CIRCULATION THROUGH THE REMAINING PERIOD. 
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      06/1500Z 17.0N 126.9W    35 KT
  12HR VT     07/0000Z 17.5N 128.9W    35 KT
  24HR VT     07/1200Z 17.9N 131.2W    40 KT
  36HR VT     08/0000Z 18.0N 133.2W    40 KT
  48HR VT     08/1200Z 18.0N 134.9W    40 KT
  72HR VT     09/1200Z 18.0N 138.0W    30 KT
  96HR VT     10/1200Z 18.0N 141.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 120HR VT     11/1200Z 18.0N 143.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN