305 
 WTNT44 KNHC 050257
 TCDAT4
 
 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
 1100 PM AST SUN SEP 04 2016
 
 Hermine remains a post-tropical cyclone with all of the deep
 convection located well north of the center.  Deep convection
 associated with the system has increased over the northern and
 northwestern portions of the circulation this evening, but it does
 not appear that there has been an increase in wind speed.  The
 initial intensity is set at 60 kt, which is in agreement with
 recent SFMR wind observations from an Air Force Reserve
 reconnaissance aircraft.  The aircraft has also recently reported a
 minimum pressure of 997 mb.  Little change in strength is expected
 overnight, but the global models indicate that weakening should
 begin by late Monday.  Continued weakening is expected during the
 remainder of the forecast period, and both the ECMWF and GFS
 dissipate the cyclone by day 5, and this is now reflected in the
 official forecast.
 
 Hermine has continued to move eastward since the previous advisory,
 but the most recent fix from the aircraft suggests that the eastward
 motion may be ending.  A shortwave trough moving off the coast
 of North Carolina should cause Hermine to turn northwestward later
 tonight, then a slow north-northwestward or northward motion should
 continue into Tuesday.  After that time, the cyclone should turn
 northeastward around the western portion of the mid- to upper-level
 ridge over the west-central Atlantic.  The NHC forecast track is
 once again a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF models, but has been
 adjusted slightly eastward based on the more eastward initial
 position.
 
 The initial wind radii have been adjusted based on data from the
 reconnaissance aircraft and a recent ASCAT overpass.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  05/0300Z 37.2N  68.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  12H  05/1200Z 37.9N  68.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  24H  06/0000Z 38.7N  69.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  36H  06/1200Z 39.2N  70.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  48H  07/0000Z 39.8N  69.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  72H  08/0000Z 40.6N  67.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  96H  09/0000Z 42.5N  63.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 120H  10/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown