900 
 WTNT44 KNHC 052040
 TCDAT4
 
 HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
 500 PM EDT WED OCT 05 2016
 
 Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane a couple of hours ago
 indicated that the structure of Matthew had not changed very much,
 and the initial intensity remains at 105 kt. Another Hurricane
 Hunter plane will be in the eye soon.   The environment continues to
 be favorable for Matthew to restrengthen while it approaches the
 the east coast of Florida during the next day or so.  After that
 time, the shear is forecast to increase significantly, resulting in
 gradual weakening of the hurricane.
 
 Satellite images indicate that Matthew is moving toward the
 northwest or 325 degrees at about 10 kt. The subtropical ridge over
 the western Atlantic is still strong, and the flow pattern around
 this ridge should continue to steer the hurricane toward the
 northwest during the next day or two with no significant change in
 forward speed. After that time, the ridge will shift eastward,
 allowing Matthew to move northward very near or over the north
 Florida east coast, and then near or to the east of the Georgia and
 South Carolina coasts. By the end of the forecast period, models
 diverge considerably, with the GFS moving the cyclone southwestward
 toward land, and the ECMWF keeping Matthew over the Atlantic a good
 distance from the coast. The NHC forecast keeps Matthew over water
 in the middle of these two model solutions.
 
 KEY MESSAGES:
 
 1.  Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm
 surge, extreme winds, and heavy rains in the Bahamas.  Please
 consult statements from the meteorological service and other
 government officials in that country.
 
 2.  When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel
 to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through
 South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at
 any one location.  For example, only a small deviation of the track
 to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major
 hurricane onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida.
 However, a small deviation to the right could keep the hurricane-
 force winds offshore.  Similarly large variations in impacts are
 possible in the hurricane watch area in northern Florida and
 Georgia.
 
 3.  Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect South
 Carolina and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if
 the center of Matthew remains offshore.  It is too soon to determine
 what, if any, land areas might be directly affected by Matthew next
 week.  At a minimum, dangerous beach and boating conditions are
 likely along much of the U.S. east coast during the next several
 days.
 
 4.  The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge
 Flooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for
 Matthew.  It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge
 Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation,
 but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of
 inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.  In
 addition, because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend
 out only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding
 potential in those locations within the watch and warning areas in
 Florida and Georgia.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  05/2100Z 22.5N  75.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
  12H  06/0600Z 24.0N  76.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
  24H  06/1800Z 25.6N  78.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
  36H  07/0600Z 27.2N  79.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
  48H  07/1800Z 29.0N  80.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
  72H  08/1800Z 32.0N  79.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
  96H  09/1800Z 32.6N  76.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 120H  10/1800Z 30.0N  74.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila