882 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 140237
 TCDEP4
 
 TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016
 800 PM PDT WED JUL 13 2016
 
 After Celia was nearly devoid of deep convection earlier today,
 infrared satellite images indicate that convection has made a bit of
 comeback over the northern portion of the circulation.  The initial
 intensity is being held at 45 kt, which is in agreement with the
 Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, and a partial ASCAT-B pass
 from a few hours ago.
 
 Celia is currently over cool 24 C waters, and although the waters
 could warm a little along the forecast track, they are expected to
 stay below 26 C.  In addition, the tropical cyclone will be moving
 into an environment of increasing westerly shear and drier air.
 These conditions should cause weakening, and the official forecast
 shows Celia degenerating into a remnant low by 36 hours.  The global
 models suggest that the remnant low could persist for several days
 over the central Pacific.
 
 The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt, and is
 being steered on the southwestern periphery of a sprawling mid-level
 ridge centered over northern Mexico and the southern United States.
 A westward turn is expected in a day or two, when Celia becomes a
 shallow system and is steered by the low-level trade wind flow.  The
 models are tightly clustered, and the NHC official track forecast
 lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  14/0300Z 19.9N 134.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  14/1200Z 20.8N 136.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  15/0000Z 21.5N 138.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  15/1200Z 21.9N 140.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  16/0000Z 22.2N 143.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  17/0000Z 22.9N 148.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  18/0000Z 23.6N 152.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  19/0000Z 24.5N 157.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi
 
 
 
 883 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 140237
 TCDEP5
 
 HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052016
 900 PM MDT WED JUL 13 2016
 
 Darby has developed a large CDO pattern and a 2314Z SSMI/S microwave
 pass indicated a 15-20 nmi diameter eye embedded in the center of
 the central dense overcast. Subjective intensity estimates are a
 consensus T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and SAB, and the latest UW-CIMSS ADT
 and AMSU estimates were T4.4/75 kt and 72 kt, respectively. The
 advisory intensity of 70 kt is based on an average of these values.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 280/10 kt. The expansive deep-layer
 ridge to the north of Darby is forecast by the global models to
 remain entrenched across the eastern and central Pacific for the
 next several days, which should act to keep Darby moving in a
 general westerly direction throughout the 5-day forecast period.
 Other than some differences in forward speed, there remains very
 little cross-track difference noted among the more reliable models.
 The new official track forecast is essentially just an extension of
 the previous advisory track, and lies close to a consensus of the
 GFS and ECMWF model solutions.
 
 Darby is expected to encounter the most favorable combination of
 atmospheric and oceanic conditions during the next 24 hours or so,
 and steady intensification is forecast as a result during that time.
 By 36-48 h, Darby will be moving across cooler SSTs near 26 deg C
 and into a drier airmass, so leveling off of the intensity is
 expected. Steady weakening is forecast to begin after that time as
 the hurricane moves over 25-26 deg C SSTs. However, the weakening
 rate is expected to be a little slower than normal due to low
 vertical wind shear conditions that both the GFS and ECMWF models
 are forecasting to affect Darby between 72-120 h. The new NHC
 intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast, and closely
 follows the SHIPS intensity forecast guidance.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  14/0300Z 15.6N 114.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
  12H  14/1200Z 15.9N 116.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
  24H  15/0000Z 16.3N 119.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
  36H  15/1200Z 16.7N 121.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
  48H  16/0000Z 17.0N 123.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
  72H  17/0000Z 17.5N 127.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
  96H  18/0000Z 18.1N 131.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 120H  19/0000Z 18.9N 136.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart