066 
 WTNT44 KNHC 042055
 TCDAT4
 
 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
 500 PM AST SUN SEP 04 2016
 
 Satellite images continue to show that practically all of the deep
 convection continues to occur well to the north and northeast of
 the low-level center of the cyclone.  This indicates that
 Hermine remains a post-tropical cyclone.  The current intensity
 estimate remains 60 kt based on continuity from the previous
 aircraft data.  Another Air Force reconnaissance plane is scheduled
 to investigate the system in a few hours.  The intensity trends
 shown by the global models suggest that a weakening trend should
 begin in 24 hours or so, and this is reflected in the latest
 official forecast.
 
 Visible satellite images show that the center has continued to
 track farther east than previous estimates, and the motion is a
 rather uncertain 070/4 kt.  A shortwave trough is approaching
 Hermine from the west, and the associated vorticity is predicted to
 move just to the south of the post-tropical cyclone within the next
 day or so.  This should cause Hermine to turn toward the north and
 northwest while moving rather slowly over the next 24-48 hours.
 After that time, Hermine should begin to move east-northeastward
 within the southern portion of the mid-latitude westerlies.  The
 official track forecast is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF
 solutions,  with the former model much farther east than the latter
 one.  The forecast for Hermine has been coordinated with the NOAA
 Ocean Prediction Center.
 
 Although the NHC forecast track has been shifted eastward today,
 there is still a threat of tropical storm conditions, coastal
 flooding and large waves along portions of the mid-Atlantic and
 northeastern United States coast during the next couple of days.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  04/2100Z 37.2N  69.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  12H  05/0600Z 37.9N  69.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  24H  05/1800Z 38.5N  70.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  36H  06/0600Z 39.1N  70.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  48H  06/1800Z 39.6N  70.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  72H  07/1800Z 40.2N  69.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  96H  08/1800Z 41.5N  65.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 120H  09/1800Z 43.5N  61.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch