377 
 WTNT44 KNHC 051454
 TCDAT4
 
 HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
 1100 AM EDT WED OCT 05 2016
 
 Both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter planes have been in the eye
 of Matthew during the past several hours.  Data from those planes
 indicate that the hurricane is gradually recovering from the
 passage over the mountains of eastern Cuba and Haiti. The eye is
 becoming better defined on satellite. Based on SFMR winds of
 103 kt and a flight-level peak wind of 118 kt, the initial
 intensity is 105 kt.
 
 The environment between the Bahamas and Florida is favorable for
 Matthew to restrengthen some during the next couple of days.
 After that time, the shear is forecast to increase, resulting in
 gradual weakening.
 
 Fixes from the planes indicate that Matthew is moving toward the
 northwest or 325 degrees at about 8 to 10 kt. The subtropical ridge
 over the western Atlantic is amplifying as anticipated by the
 global models.  The flow pattern around this ridge should continue
 to steer the hurricane toward the northwest during the next day or
 two with no significant change in forward speed. After that time
 the ridge will move east allowing Matthew to move northward very
 near or over the Florida east coast and then near or to the east of
 the Georgia and South Carolina coasts. By the end of the forecast
 period, models have changed significantly since yesterday.
 Some track models keep the hurricane moving eastward across the
 Atlantic while the GFS and the ECMWF reduce the hurricane's forward
 speed with a southward turn. This change in these two valuable
 models is reflected in the current NHC forecast.
 
 KEY MESSAGES:
 
 1.  Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm
 surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in
 portions of the hurricane warning areas in Cuba and the Bahamas.
 Please consult statements from the meteorological services and other
 government officials in those countries.
 
 2.  When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel
 to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through
 South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at
 any one location.  For example, only a small deviation of the track
 to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major
 hurricane onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida.
 However, a small deviation to the right could keep the hurricane-
 force winds offshore.
 
 3.  Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect Georgia,
 South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this weekend,
 even if the center of Matthew remains offshore.  It is too soon to
 determine what, if any, land areas might be directly affected by
 Matthew next week.  At a minimum, dangerous beach and boating
 conditions are likely along much of the U.S. east coast during the
 next several days.
 
 4.  The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge
 Flooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for
 Matthew.  It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge
 Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation,
 but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of
 inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.  In
 addition, because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend
 out only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding
 potential in those locations within the watch and warning areas.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  05/1500Z 21.8N  75.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
  12H  06/0000Z 23.1N  76.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
  24H  06/1200Z 24.8N  77.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
  36H  07/0000Z 26.6N  79.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
  48H  07/1200Z 28.2N  80.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
  72H  08/1200Z 31.5N  80.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
  96H  09/1200Z 32.5N  76.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 120H  10/1200Z 32.0N  74.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila