991 
 WTNT41 KNHC 050233
 TCDAT1
 
 HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
 1100 PM AST SUN OCT 04 2015
 
 The coverage and intensity of deep convection associated with the
 hurricane have diminished.  Microwave imagery indicates that the
 inner core has become less distinct, although the convective
 banding features remain well defined.  An Air Force Reserve
 Unit Hurricane Hunter plane reported maximum 700 mb flight-level
 winds of 87 kt over the southeastern quadrant of the circulation.
 This corresponds to an intensity of about 75 kt. Only slight cooling
 of waters along the path of the cyclone is indicated over the next
 couple of days, since Joaquin will be moving along the Gulf Stream.
 Dynamical guidance does not show the vertical shear becoming strong
 until about 48 hours.  Slow weakening is predicted for the next
 couple of days, in general agreement with the SHIPS guidance.  By 72
 hours the sea surface temperatures should cool significantly, and
 the global models depict the system as embedded within a baroclinic
 zone.  Therefore the forecast shows Joaquin becoming extratropical
 by that time.
 
 The initial motion continues to be north-northeastward, or 025/11
 kt.  A short wave ridge ahead of the hurricane appears to have
 caused some temporary slowing of the forward motion.  In a day or
 two, the ridge flattens out, and the cyclone should begin to
 accelerate within the mid-latitude westerlies.  The official
 forecast through 48 hours is close to the multi-model consensus.
 The track, intensity, and wind radii for 72 hours and beyond are
 based on the consensus as well as guidance from the Ocean Prediction
 Center.
 
 Tropical storm conditions are likely to continue on Bermuda for at
 least the next several hours, with possible winds to hurricane
 force in squalls especially at elevated locations.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  05/0300Z 33.1N  65.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
  12H  05/1200Z 34.5N  64.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
  24H  06/0000Z 36.2N  63.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
  36H  06/1200Z 37.8N  59.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
  48H  07/0000Z 39.5N  54.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  08/0000Z 42.5N  38.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  09/0000Z 45.0N  23.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  10/0000Z 47.0N  16.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch