863 
 WTNT42 KNHC 012051
 TCDAT2
 HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
 500 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2010
  
 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME VERY
 DISTINCT...WITH OJECTIVE T-NUMBERS OSCILLATING AROUND 6.0 FOR THE
 PAST FEW HOURS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE MEASURED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF
 138 KNOTS AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 941 MB IN THE LAST FIX.
 HOWEVER...SFMR MEASUREMENTS WERE A LITTLE LOWER. A COMPROMISE OF
 THESE DATA SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS.
 HOWEVER...EARL COULD FLUCTUATE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO
 24 HOURS BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT REACHES
 COOLER WATERS AND MOVES INTO HIGHER SHEAR BEYOND 36 HOURS. BY DAY 5
 THE HURRICANE SHOULD HAVE BEEN ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL
 CYCLONE WELL NORTH OF CANADA.
  
 SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT EARL
 HAS BEEN MOVING RELENTLESSLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES
 AT 15 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS ABOUT TO REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF
 THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE
 NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. IN ABOUT 36
 HOURS OR SO...THE HURRICANE WILL ENCOUNTER THE BASE OF THE
 MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND SHOULD BEGIN TO RECURVE OR TURN TO THE
 NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS THE SOLUTION
 CONSISTENTLY PROVIDED BY TRACK MODELS...WHICH HAVE EARL PASSING TO
 THE EAST BUT NOT FAR FROM THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA ON
 THURSDAY NIGHT. ONLY A SMALL WESTWARD DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO THE
 WEST WOULD BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE TO THE COAST.
  
 GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK...THE LARGE SIZE OF THE WIND FIELD...AND
 THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WATCHES AND WATCHES HAVE
 BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.
   
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      01/2100Z 26.3N  73.3W   115 KT
  12HR VT     02/0600Z 28.4N  74.7W   115 KT
  24HR VT     02/1800Z 31.7N  75.4W   110 KT
  36HR VT     03/0600Z 35.1N  74.7W   100 KT
  48HR VT     03/1800Z 38.5N  72.2W    90 KT
  72HR VT     04/1800Z 46.5N  63.5W    60 KT
  96HR VT     05/1800Z 58.0N  57.0W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120HR VT     06/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
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