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 WTPA44 PHFO 060237
 TCDCP4
 
 TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP092015
 500 PM HST WED AUG 05 2015
  
 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF GUILLERMO CONTINUES TO DEGRADE AS
 VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EXACTS A GREATER TOLL. A LONE CLUSTER OF DEEP
 CONVECTION IS PERSISTING WITHIN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AS STRONG
 UPPER LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS PRODUCE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF OVER
 40 KT ACCORDING TO CIMSS. AS A RESULT...THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
 CENTER IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS AN AREA OF
 DRY AIR ALOFT DIRECTLY OVER THE CENTER...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE
 UPPER LEVEL WARM CORE IS LIKELY DESTROYED. CURRENT INTENSITY
 ESTIMATES FROM HFO AND SAB CAME IN AT 2.0...AND JTWC AND ADT WERE
 LOWER...YIELDING AN ESTIMATE OF 30 KT. MORNING RECONNAISSANCE DATA
 AND A 1930 UTC ASCAT PASS SUPPORTED MUCH HIGHER WINDS...SO THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY WILL BE LOWERED TO 45 KT.
  
 STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FLATTEN AS IT REMAINS IN PLACE NORTH OF
 THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...IMPARTING STRONG VERTICAL WIND
 SHEAR. DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS PERSISTENT AS THE
 UPPER LEVELS OF THE SYSTEM BECOME INCREASINGLY DECOUPLED...CAUSING
 GUILLERMO TO STEADILY WEAKEN. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
 THE PRIOR ADVISORY...WEAKENING GUILLERMO TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
 BY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY.
 THE FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS ICON AND IS LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN
 SHIPS...WHICH DISSIPATES GUILLERMO ON FRIDAY.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...OR 295 DEGREES...
 AT 9 KT...WITH THE LOW LEVEL CENTER COMPLETELY EXPOSED. THE FORWARD
 MOTION OF THE SYSTEM IS A BIT SLOWER DUE TO WOBBLES OF THE LOW
 LEVEL CENTER AS IT WAS BECOMING EXPOSED EARLIER TODAY. AS THE UPPER
 LEVELS OF THE SYSTEM BECOME DECOUPLED...THE STEERING SHOULD BECOME
 DOMINATED BY A LOWER LEVEL RIDGE FAR TO THE NORTH...WITH A GENERAL
 WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IMPARTED BY A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
 TO THE NORTH. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE LAST
 ADVISORY AND REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A RATHER TIGHTLY
 CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN IN THE MIDDLE OF
 THE ENVELOPE THEREAFTER.
  
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  06/0300Z 21.6N 152.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  06/1200Z 22.1N 153.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  07/0000Z 22.7N 155.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  07/1200Z 23.3N 158.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  08/0000Z 24.0N 160.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  09/0000Z 25.9N 165.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  10/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER WROE