861 
 WTPA41 PHFO 141444
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012016
 500 AM HST THU JAN 14 2016
  
 PALI CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO A
 RELATIVELY SMALL BUT PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ESTIMATED
 TO BE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 0856Z
 SQUARELY SAMPLED PALI...AND DETECTED MAXIMUM WINDS AROUND 25 KT...
 SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN IN A RAPIDSCAT PASS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
 THE ASCAT PASS ALSO RAISES THE QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT A
 CLOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EXISTS ANY LONGER...OR IF A
 SHARP TROUGH IS ALL THAT REMAINS OF PALI. RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES...
 INCLUDING A 0925Z METOP-A OVERPASS...INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
 ORGANIZATION WITHIN THE LIMITED CONVECTION. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE ON THEIR RAPID DECLINE...WITH
 FINAL-T VALUES RANGING FROM 2.0/30 KT TO 2.5/35 KT...WHILE CURRENT
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 2.5/35 KT TO 3.0/45 KT. PLACING
 INCREASED EMPHASIS ON THE SCATTEROMETER DATA...AND BLENDING IT WITH
 THE DVORAK ESTIMATES...PALI IS ESTIMATED TO BE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
 WITH 30 KT MAXIMUM WINDS FOR THIS ADVISORY. 
 
 BASED ON WHERE THE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IS PERSISTING...AND AFTER
 MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE 0000Z AND 0600Z POSITION ESTIMATES...
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY IS AN UNCERTAIN 230/5
 KT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT AND PALI/S
 PROXIMITY TO THE EQUATOR ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO THE DEMISE OF THE
 SMALL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO...STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
 ALONG THE EQUATOR WHICH AIDED IN THE DEVELOMENT OF PALI A WEEK AGO
 ARE NO LONGER PRESENT...WITH THE FLOW NOW HEADED TOWARD AN EXPANSIVE
 AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. THUS IT NOW
 APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT PALI WILL NOT BE ABLE TO REDEVELOP...AND
 THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES THAT PALI WILL BECOME A REMNANT LOW
 WITHIN 12 HOURS. DISSIPATION IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW SHORTLY
 THEREAFTER...IN LINE WITH THE LATEST SHIPS AND GFS GUIDANCE. PALI IS
 FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST UNTIL THIS OCCURS. 
   
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  14/1500Z  2.5N 173.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  15/0000Z  2.2N 173.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  24H  15/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 
 FORECASTER BIRCHARD